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1.2.2023

EN

Official Journal of the European Union
L 29/3

ii in the case of exposures secured by mortgages on commercial immovable property as referred to in Article 1242, first subparagraph, of Regulation EU No 575/2013, the losses reported in accordance with Article 430a1, point d, of that Regulation and the exposure value reported in accordance with Article 430a1, point f, of that Regulation;
b the loss expectation as the best estimate of losses to be realised during a forward-looking horizon of at least one year, and, if so determined by that authority, up to three years.

For the purposes of point b, the loss expectation shall be determined as the average of the estimated losses for each year during the chosen forward-looking horizon.

2.
The authorities designated in accordance with Article 1241a of Regulation EU No 575/2013 shall determine the loss expectation referred to in paragraph 1, point b, in either of the following ways:
a by adjusting the loss experience referred to in paragraph 1, point a, upwards or downwards;
b by keeping the loss experience unchanged.

When determining the loss expectation referred to in paragraph 1, point b, the authorities shall reflect the forwardlooking immovable property market developments referred to in Article 1242, first subparagraph, point b, of Regulation EU No 575/2013 during a forward-looking horizon of at least one year and, if so determined by that authority, up to three years.

3.
The loss expectation referred to in paragraph 1, point b, and determined in accordance with paragraph 2, shall be based on all of the following:
a the historical evolution and cyclical characteristics of the immovable property market as reflected in immovable property market transactions and prices, and in the volatility of those prices, as evidenced by the relevant data indicators or qualitative information;
b the past and present structural characteristics of the immovable property market, and the future evolution of those structural characteristics related to the size of the immovable property market, the specificities of real estate financing, national taxation systems and the national regulatory provisions for buying, holding or letting immovable property;
c the fundamental drivers of demand and supply in the immovable property market, as evidenced by any relevant data indicators or qualitative information, including lending standards, construction activity, vacancy rates, or transaction activity;
d the riskiness of the exposures secured by immovable property, as measured by all of the following:
i indicators relevant for the property segments of the Member State and, where relevant, for parts of the territory of that Member State, having regard to Section 6 of the EBA Guidelines on subsets of exposures in the application of a Systemic Risk Buffer 3, issued in accordance with Article 1336 of Directive 2013/36/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council 4;
ii the lending standard indicators specified in the recommendation of the European Systemic Risk Board on closing real estate data gaps 5;
e the expected evolution in immovable property market prices and the expected volatility in those prices, including an assessment of the uncertainty around such expectations;
3 Final guidelines on the appropriate subsets of sectoral exposures to which competent or designated authorities may apply a systemic risk buffer in accordance with Article 1335f of Directive 2013/36/EU EBA/GL/2020/13.
4 Directive 2013/36/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 26 June 2013 on access to the activity of credit institutions and the prudential supervision of credit institutions and investment firms, amending Directive 2002/87/EC and repealing Directives 2006/48/EC and 2006/49/EC OJ L 176, 27.6.2013, p. 338.
5 Recommendation of the European Systemic Risk Board of 21 March 2019 amending Recommendation ESRB/2016/14 on closing real estate data gaps ESRB/2019/3 OJ C 271, 13.8.2019, p. 1.